Welcome to the second issue of The Basestation Conference E-Newsletter!

Are the good times back? With most wireless infrastructure majors reporting solid profits after 3 years

of red bottom lines and swingeing cutbacks, it would seem that wireless infrastructure is growing again at last. But an abundance of new wireless technologies is making the simple question “so what standard should I build?” harder to answer.

The default choice is UMTS, now with HSDPA, 2004's must-have capability. Most major vendors are claiming to have HSDPA available within the next 9 months – often through a “software upgrade”. Since the first commercial HSDPA terminals won't appear until next year there will no doubt be a multitude of “software upgrades” before a commercial service is a reality, but sometime in 2006 the “megabit mobile” potential of HSDPA should emerge. However, that might be far enough out to create windows of opportunity for other technologies.

Next year the first WiMAX-certified 802.16-2004 (previously known as 802.16d) products should be deployed – the real capabilities of the new standard should emerge after the overheated excitement of this year. The 802.16e “mobility” version is being pushed through IEEE standardisation process – “e” combined with VoIP could be a useful low-cost voice solution. The success achieved by Chinese fixed-line operators with the Xiaolingtong service based on the Japanese Personal Handyphone System (PHS) might be a foretaste of the competition to come from WiMAX for established cellular standards.

But WiMAX is not the only “alternative” solution. Other OFDM technologies are in trial deployments, most notably Flarion with their Flash-OFDM which claims very high inherent efficiency for IP traffic. UMTS TDD continues to gain traction, most notably with IPWireless, although the Chinese “narrowband TDD” standard, TD-SCDMA, is being readied for deployment. The availability of TD-SCDMA equipment from multiple Asian vendors, compatibility with a UMTS core network and a claimed roadmap to 10Mbit might make TD-SCDMA an interesting proposition far beyond the borders of China .

The answer to “what product should I build?” seems to be less and less obvious. Alasdair Brydon and Mark Heath of Sound Partners take a deeper look into the situation and propose some valid questions that will shake out the real economically viable options.

The future evolution of the Basestation business continues to be as fascinating and confusing as ever. The forthcoming conference, The Basestation Conference 2005 (April 26-29 th 2005 at the Bath Spa Hotel, Bath UK ), will pick up all these various threads and bring them together with presentations from experts across the industry. For those who make their living figuring out what is going on in the Basestation business it will be the definitive conference of next year. I hope to see you there!