Pushing Beyond the Limits of 3G

Dr Mark Heath and Dr Alastair Brydon

New technologies beyond 3G may be essential to support new services, such as mobile TV/video and high-speed Internet access, which push 3G capabilities to the limit. However, at first sight there is a confusing array of options:

· Standardised evolution of 3G, such as W-CDMA High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) and Enhanced Uplink (EUL). For example, HSDPA, available from 2005, will increase the average user throughput of the W-CDMA downlink to over 1Mbit/s and halve the cost per Mbyte.

· Proprietary broadband wireless access (BWA) systems, such as Arraycomm’s iBurst, Flarion’s Flash OFDM and the IPWireless variant of W-CDMA TDD. These are commercially available now, and boast a variety of performance advantages over cellular networks, including improved coverage, higher speed, lower latency (delay) and lower cost per Mbyte.

· Forthcoming BWA standards, such as IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX) and IEEE 802.20. Backed heavily by Intel and the WiMAX Forum, IEEE 802.16 brings order to the disparate array of proprietary BWA systems, which have failed to achieve commercial success in fixed broadband access. With the addition of mobility and the benefit of Intel producing chipsets for user devices, the WiMAX Forum anticipates a raft of compelling applications and major impact on the wireless industry from 2006.

While, in principle, these technologies could be deployed by a variety of organisations, mobile operators currently represent the biggest opportunity, being the key route to achieving major economies of scale. Mobile operators benefit from existing network infrastructure (including base station sites with backhaul), large numbers of customers and strong brands. Many are cash rich and able to make significant network investment.

The challenge for each of the emerging technologies is that, not only must they prove their technical capabilities, they must enable a service mix that justifies significant investment. This will not be easy. As DSL and cable services extend their reach and lower their prices, pure fixed broadband provision is a rapidly diminishing market opportunity with wafer thin margins. New technologies must enable much more than this to maintain the revenue per Mbyte levels achieved by traditional mobile services.

Today, decisions on these emerging technologies are hindered by extensive hype and a lack of hard data. Not surprisingly, all of the candidate technologies put themselves in the best light by focusing on their own particular strengths, such as technical performance, availability, or cost of deployment. While the claims are often impressive, it can be difficult to relate them to performance in a full commercial implementation with real customers. While much is still uncertain, the situation can be made much clearer by putting aside the marketing messages and considering the commercial questions that will dictate mobile operator choices:

· will the technology enable a service mix that can stimulate high service take-up and achieve attractive revenue per Mbyte?

· will the technology achieve significant performance and/or cost gains in practical deployment, which justify deployment over existing technologies?

· is the technology supported by a competitive multi-vendor environment for both network infrastructure and handsets/terminals, ideally with products from existing (low risk) infrastructure vendors?

· can the technology be integrated into existing base-station infrastructure, to minimise incremental investment, integration costs and risks?

· is quality of service acceptable when the technology is deployed at existing base-station locations?

· can the technology be deployed in spectrum that can be acquired quickly and cheaply, to enable early deployment and global economies of scale?

Reviewing the options against these criteria reveals that, while many have strengths in one or two areas, they also have substantial weaknesses. In some cases, these weaknesses could prove to be showstoppers, irrespective of other strengths. For example, without the widespread availability of spectrum with the right characteristics (e.g. range/coverage and licences that permit mobility), some technologies will be unable to deliver either the service mix or economies of scale needed to be competitive. Also, if mobile operators are unable to integrate new technologies into their existing networks without extensive reworking and investment, they will look elsewhere. The speed at which these issues are now addressed by each technology option will quickly determine the winners and the losers.

For more information see Pushing Beyond the Limits of 3G: the role of HSDPA, WiMAX, IEEE 802.20 and proprietary BWA, published by Analysys Research, November 2004.

Mark Heath and Alastair Brydon are co-founders and directors of wireless research company Sound Partners Ltd (www.soundpartners.ltd.uk).