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From Plain Old Mobile Telephone Service to the Acceleration of Mobile Broadband
Joe Barrett, QUALCOMM Europe
There were just over 100,000 cellular subscribers in 1986; mobile voice was a business application and the Motorola DynaTAC mobile phone cost $3,995. In 2006 as we approach 3 billion subscribers, mobile voice is ubiquitous among consumers and SMS has changed the vocabulary of teenagers worldwide. Strategy Analytics reported in May 2006 that the global price of voice services continues to fall from $0.32 per minute in 1998 to a predicted $0.05 per minute in 2010, while minutes of usage are expected to increase from 180 mins per month to 422 mins per month.
Likewise the average selling price, (ASP) for mobile phones has fallen in the past 10 years from $840 to less than $200 today, due to technological innovation and increased competition from new handset vendors entering the market. Ten to 15 years ago two handset vendors accounted for 60-70% of mobile handset sales. In today's 3G markets, vendor share is spread among half a dozen major suppliers and eight to 10 smaller companies. Increased competition in the marketplace, more consumer choice and a greater variety of devices have resulted in lower prices, greater customer expectations and an industry worth some $170 billion a year.
To further expand global market penetration, device makers have focused much of their effort on low-end, sub $50 phones for emerging markets, spending millions of R&D dollars in this area. At the other end of the spectrum hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on mobile data to accelerate uptake in those countries with high mobile penetration. As fixed broadband access approaches 50% penetration in many countries, mobile operators are beefing up their networks to deliver higher data rates and create an enhanced mobile broadband user experience.
The Global mobile Suppliers Association's June 12th Technology Update suggests HSDPA is accelerating towards 101 networks in 50 countries with more than 30 commercial HSDPA deployments today. Samsung was the first company to offer an HSDPA mobile phone, the SGH-ZX20 flip phone that supports data rates up to 1.8 Mbps though actual users rates are expected to be in the 400-700 kbps range.
3G HSDPA PC cards are available from multiple sources and mobile broadband business laptop connectivity will become more pervasive as commercial roll out of HSDPA accelerates. Laptops from Acer, Dell, Fujitsu-Siemens, HP, Itronix, Lenovo and Panasonic now have integrated 3G data functionality which will increase the dissemination of mobile broadband technology into the business workforce in the same way that integrated WiFi has accelerated wireless fixed internet access.
Additional devices with 3.6 Mbps chipsets will appear during 2006 and the roadmap to 7.2 Mbps chipsets, some using 65nm technology, have been announced by QUALCOMM and other suppliers. In 2007, expect to see the first devices with 7.2 Mbps chipsets supporting user data rates of 1-3 Mbps, depending on network load and device capabilities.
While HSDPA only address the radio downlink, HSUPA, which will address the uplink, is the next step on the WCDMA data evolution path. HSDPA will deliver a far better browsing experience for customers and enable faster download of email attachments, still the primary need for business customers. HSUPA will improve the user experience of applications such as sending email with large attachments, as well as applications that require more symmetrical data rates. Mbps data rates in both the uplink and downlink will make it easer for mobile operators to deliver a wireless service analogous to fixed broadband, but with the added advantage of mobility.
Figure 1: Deutsche Bahn RailNet Wi-Fi on trains schematic diagram
Demand for mobile Internet access and email, especially from business users has been confirmed by the first rail companies providing Wi-Fi access in trains. 3G, satellite and early commercial deployments of FLASH-OFDM are used as the mobile backhaul technologies. Deutsche Bahn in Germany, GNER and Southern Rail in the United Kingdom, SJ Trains in Sweden and Viarail in Canada all have early commercial systems in service. On the Deutsche Bahn RailNet network, customers access the Internet via T-Mobile Wi-Fi hotspots on the ICE trains while travelling at speeds up to 300km/h. Forty-four percent of users are accessing email, 26% infotainment, followed by travel information and corporate access at 12% and 10%, respectively. Southern Rail say 12% of first class passengers are already using the service on the London to Brighton trains with some customers upgrading their ticket class to gain “free” Internet access (passengers in second class pay £5 per hour for service).
Train operators say customer satisfaction of wireless access from trains is quite high (even with the unsurprising requests for higher speeds and lower prices). As these new data technologies become more widespread and new devices that offer a combination of technologies including Wi-Fi hit the market, customers can be expected to increase their usage of mobile data services wherever they are. Not just on trains.
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